Evidence of a decreasing trend for the Hubble constant

The current discrepancy between the Hubble constant, H-0, derived from the local distance ladder and from the cosmic microwave background is one of the most crucial issues in cosmology, as it may possibly indicate unknown systematics or new physics. Here, we present a novel non-parametric method to estimate the Hubble constant as a function of redshift. We establish independent estimates of the evolution of Hubble constant by diagonalizing the covariance matrix. From type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillation data and the observed Hubble parameter data, a decreasing trend in the Hubble constant with a significance of a 5.6 sigma confidence level is found. At low redshift, its value is dramatically consistent with that measured from the local distance ladder and it drops to the value measured from the cosmic microwave background at high redshift. Our results may relieve the Hubble tension, with a preference for recent solutions, especially with respect to novel physics.

Automated summary

This study presents a novel non-parametric method to estimate the Hubble constant as a function of redshift by diagonalizing the covariance matrix. A decreasing trend in the Hubble constant is found with a significance of a 5.6 sigma confidence level using data from type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillation, and observed Hubble parameter. The Hubble constant is consistent with the local distance ladder at low redshift and drops to the value measured from the cosmic microwave background at high redshift. Our results may relieve the Hubble tension, favoring recent solutions and novel physics.