Achieving net-zero emissions targets: An analysis of long-term scenarios using an integrated assessment model

More than 100 countries have communicated or adopted new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and net-zero target pledges. We investigate the impact on global, national, sectoral, and individual greenhouse gas emissions projections under different scenarios based on the announced NDCs and net-zero pledges using the IMAGE integrated assessment model. Our results show that while the net-zero pledges, if implemented, could be an important step forward, they are still not enough to achieve the Paris Agreement goals of well below 2 degrees C and preferably 1.5 degrees C by the end of the century. Still, our net-zero scenarios project significant all-sector decarbonization, in particular, electricity; however, certain sectors like industry and transport prove hard to completely abate.

Automated summary

More than 100 countries have communicated or adopted new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and net-zero target pledges. Our investigation using the IMAGE integrated assessment model reveals that these pledges, although important, are insufficient to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Despite this, our scenarios project significant decarbonization in all sectors, particularly in electricity, but challenges remain in sectors such as industry and transport.