The Subsurface and Surface Indian Ocean Dipoles and Their Association with ENSO in CMIP6 models

This study assesses the reproducibility of 31 historical simulations from 1850 to 2014 in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for the subsurface (Sub-IOD) and surface Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and their association with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Most CMIP6 models can reproduce the leading east-west dipole oscillation mode of heat content anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) but largely overestimate the amplitude and the dominant period of the Sub-IOD. Associated with the much steeper west-to-east thermocline tilt of the TIO, the vertical coupling between the Sub-IOD and IOD is overly strong in most CMIP6 models compared to that in the Ocean Reanalysis System 4 (ORAS4). Related to this, most models also show a much tighter association of Sub-IOD and IOD events with the canonical ENSO than observations. This explains the more (less) regular Sub-IOD and IOD events in autumn in those models with stronger (weaker) surface-subsurface coupling in TIO. Though all model simulations feature a consistently low bias regarding the percentage of the winter-spring Sub-IOD events co-occurring with a Central Pacific (CP) ENSO, the linkage between a westward-centered CP-ENSO and the Sub-IOD that occurs in winter-spring, independent of the IOD, is well reproduced.

Automated summary

This study evaluates the reproducibility of historical simulations in the CMIP6 for Sub-IOD and IOD, and their association with ENSO. Most CMIP6 models can reproduce the east-west dipole oscillation mode of heat content anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean, but they overestimate the amplitude and period of the Sub-IOD. The vertical coupling between Sub-IOD and IOD is stronger in CMIP6 models compared to observations, leading to a tighter association with ENSO. Nonetheless, the linkage between a westward-centered CP-ENSO and the Sub-IOD occurring in winter-spring is well reproduced.