期刊
HYDROLOGY
卷 10, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/hydrology10010018
关键词
floods; L-moments; GEV; LP3; flood frequency; uncertainty
This study uses Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrapping methods to estimate flood frequency and associated uncertainties in ten river catchments in eastern Australia. The results show that three-parameter distributions provide consistent estimation of confidence intervals, while two-parameter distributions show biased estimation. The study also emphasizes the difficulty in flood frequency analysis, as different probability distributions perform quite differently even in a smaller geographical area.
Reducing uncertainty in design flood estimates is an essential part of flood risk planning and management. This study presents results from flood frequency estimates and associated uncertainties for five commonly used probability distribution functions, extreme value type 1 (EV1), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized pareto distribution (GPD), log normal (LN) and log Pearson type 3 (LP3). The study was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and bootstrapping (BS) methods for the 10 river catchments in eastern Australia. The parameters were estimated by applying the method of moments (for LP3, LN, and EV1) and L-moments (for GEV and GPD). Three-parameter distributions (e.g., LP3, GEV, and GPD) demonstrate a consistent estimation of confidence interval (CI), whereas two-parameter distributions show biased estimation. The results of this study also highlight the difficulty in flood frequency analysis, e.g., different probability distributions perform quite differently even in a smaller geographical area.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据