Examining the causal effect of pretrial detention on case outcomes: a judge fixed effect instrumental variable approach

Exploiting quasi-random assignment to NYC arraignment judges with varying propensities to detain, we use a judge fixed effect instrumental variable approach to estimate the impact of pretrial detention on several case outcomes: guilty plea, conviction, and carceral sentence. We find that any period of pretrial detention increases the likelihood of a guilty plea by 23 percentage points, a conviction by 24 percentage points, and a carceral sentence by 35 percentage points. Stratified analyses show differences in the size of the effect by charge severity and race: felony defendants experienced a larger effect on all case outcomes; non-Black defendants experienced a larger effect on guilty pleas and convictions; and Black defendants experienced a larger effect on carceral sentences.

Automated summary

By exploiting quasi-random assignment to NYC arraignment judges with varying propensities to detain, this study estimates the impact of pretrial detention on case outcomes using a judge fixed effect instrumental variable approach. The findings show that any period of pretrial detention significantly increases the likelihood of guilty plea, conviction, and carceral sentence. Furthermore, the size of the effect differs by charge severity and race.