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Thermodynamics
Khalid Khan et al.
Summary: The energy market is highly vulnerable to pandemic uncertainty, with energy prices experiencing a significant decline. The impact on oil prices is greater compared to natural gas and heating oil prices.
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Business, Finance
Afees A. Salisu et al.
Summary: The study examines the predictability of geopolitical risks on exchange rate volatility of the BRICS using historical and recent GPR data. The analysis shows that recent GPR data has a greater impact on BRICS exchange rates compared to historical data, with contrasting evidence between global and country-specific GPR data. Additionally, accounting for GPR in the valuation of foreign exchange portfolios can lead to out-of-sample economic gains.
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE
(2022)
Article
Economics
Dario Caldara et al.
Summary: This paper presents a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and their risks. The geopolitical risk index is particularly high during significant historical events such as world wars, the Korean War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk leads to lower investment and employment, as well as increased probability of disasters and larger downside risks. This risk is driven by both the threat and occurrence of adverse geopolitical events. Industry- and firm-level indicators also show that investment declines more in industries exposed to geopolitical risk, and higher firm-level geopolitical risk is associated with lower investment.
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
(2022)
Article
Economics
Whelsy Boungou et al.
Summary: Using stock returns data from 94 countries globally between 22 January and 24 March 2022, this study finds a negative relationship between the Ukraine-Russia war and world stock market returns, providing the first empirical evidence for this.
Article
Business, Finance
Barbara Bedowska-Sojka et al.
Summary: The study found that different asset classes exhibit varying levels of sensitivity to geopolitical risk, with bonds and stocks showing strong coherence over longer periods while currencies are affected more in shorter periods. Among these asset classes, green bonds, gold, silver, Swiss franc, and real estate are the most resistant to risk fluctuations.
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Economics
Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz et al.
Summary: Demand shocks appreciate forex rates for both net oil-producing and net oil-consuming economies, while supply-driven moves in oil prices have a marginal influence on forex rates for most countries. Risk shocks have depreciating effects on the ASEAN-5 exchange rates, indicating that the open-oriented nature of these economies makes them susceptible to constant fluctuations in the global oil market.
Article
Business, Finance
Zaghum Umar et al.
Summary: The impact of geopolitical risk generated by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on European and Russian financial assets is examined. The findings suggest that there is a mixed relationship between most assets and geopolitical risk, with changes in asset returns during normal market conditions. The magnitude and direction of this effect depend on the type of market and market conditions.
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Business, Finance
Sabri Boubaker et al.
Summary: Using an event study methodology, this study examines the impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on global stock markets. The research finds that this invasion generated negative cumulative abnormal returns for global stock market indices, with varying effects across countries and regions. The study reveals that higher levels of economic globalization, as measured by GDP-scaled trade, are associated with lower event-day and post-event returns. Additionally, markets of NATO countries exhibited higher returns, consistent with the expected economic stimulus of military preparedness.
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Business, Finance
Imran Yousaf et al.
Summary: This paper examines the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the G20 and other selected stock markets using the event study approach. The study reveals a strong negative impact of the conflict on the majority of stock markets, especially on the Russian market. The analysis shows that different countries' stock markets had varying degrees of negative returns before and after the conflict broke out.
JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL AND EXPERIMENTAL FINANCE
(2022)
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Ahmed Bossman et al.
Journal of Economic Asymmetries
(2022)
Article
Sana Gaied Chortane et al.
Journal of Economic Asymmetries
(2022)
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Business, Finance
Md. Kausar Alam et al.
Summary: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had significant impact on global commodity and financial markets. Gold, silver, and the stock markets of the United States, Canada, China, and Brazil have been most affected. This research provides policy implications for commodity and stock investors, aiding decision-making in turbulent situations.
JOURNAL OF RISK AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Business, Finance
Liya Hau et al.
Summary: This study employs quantile-on-quantile regression to investigate the predictive power of transaction activity on Bitcoin returns, uncovering asymmetric predictive relationships between transaction activity and Bitcoin returns under different market conditions. The findings suggest that strategies based on transaction activity should be tailored to Bitcoin market performance.
NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE
(2021)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Muhammad Abubakr Naeem et al.
PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS
(2020)
Article
Environmental Studies
Bisharat Hussain Chang et al.
Article
Economics
Sangram Keshari Jena et al.
Article
Business, Finance
Nicholas Sim et al.
JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE
(2015)