Significance of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 on China's energy transition pathway: A multi-model comparison analysis

China has proposed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Although previous studies have assessed net-zero emissions pathways in China, the diversity observed in these studies in terms of model construction and parameter setting has led to inconsistent conclusions on some key issues, such as energy transition. This study employs a multi-model comparison method to examine the significance of China's carbon neutrality target on its energy systems by assessing 67 carbon neutrality scenarios in China that are collected from the ADVANCE database, and identifying the differences between energy transition pathways under BEF60 scenarios (i.e. scenarios realising carbon neutrality by 2060) and AFT60 scenarios (i.e. scenarios realising carbon neutrality after 2060). Results show that China needs a larger deployment of low-carbon electricity, a higher electrification rate and more carbon sequestration amount under BEF60 scenarios than those under AFT60 scenarios. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the difference between the two categories of scenarios varies significantly in terms of different outcome indicators. Those that present significant disparities include the deployment scale of solar power (increasing by 160%), the electrification rate of the building sector (increasing by 27%) and the carbon sequestration amount of biomass power with carbon capture and storage (increasing by 380%). In addition, this study selects six indicators to present the technological and economic characteristics of various energy systems of China at the point of net-zero emissions. Exploring the relationships between characteristics, this research identifies the common features among various net-zero energy systems. A great share of non-biomass renewable power generation is always associated with a relatively high per capita energy use, implying that high renewables penetration may relax restrictions on energy consumption, which should be addressed for China when making efforts to promote energy transition.

Automated summary

China’s proposal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 is examined by assessing 67 carbon neutrality scenarios in China through a multi-model comparison method. The study highlights the differences in energy transition pathways between scenarios realizing carbon neutrality by 2060 and scenarios realizing it after 2060. Results show that China needs larger deployment of low-carbon electricity and higher electrification rate under the BEF60 scenarios. Additionally, the study presents the technological and economic characteristics of different energy systems in China at the point of net-zero emissions.