期刊
CLINICAL PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE
卷 -, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
DOI: 10.1177/21677026221103138
关键词
early-warning signals; transitions in mental health; at-risk mental state; psychopathology; diary studies; personalized psychiatry
This study empirically investigated whether early-warning signals (EWSs) precede transitions towards psychopathology in at-risk youths. The results showed that EWSs had low sensitivity and moderate specificity, suggesting that their generic nature and clinical utility could not be substantiated.
If psychopathology behaves like a complex dynamic system, sudden onset or worsening of symptoms may be preceded by early-warning signals (EWSs). EWSs could thus reflect personalized warning signals for impending psychopathology. We empirically investigated this hypothesis in at-risk youths (N = 122, mean age = 23.6 +/- 0.7 years, 57% males) from the clinical cohort of Tracking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS-CC), who provided daily emotion assessments for 6 months. We analyzed whether EWSs (rising autocorrelations and standard deviations in emotions) preceded transitions toward psychopathology. Across indicators and a range of analytical options, EWSs had low sensitivity (M = 26%, SD = 11%) and moderate specificity (M = 75%, SD = 14%). Thus, in the present sample, the proposed generic nature and clinical utility of EWSs could not be substantiated. Given this finding, we call for a more nuanced view on the application of complex-dynamic-systems principles to psychopathology and lay out key questions to be addressed in the future.
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