Individual differences in naturalistic learning link negative emotionality to the development of anxiety

Organisms learn from prediction errors (PEs) to predict the future. Laboratory studies using small financial out-comes find that humans use PEs to update expectations and link individual differences in PE-based learning to internalizing disorders. Because of the low-stakes outcomes in most tasks, it is unclear whether PE learning emerges in naturalistic, high-stakes contexts and whether individual differences in PE learning predict psycho-pathology risk. Using experience sampling to assess 625 college students' expected exam grades, we found evidence of PE-based learning and a general tendency to discount negative PEs, an optimism bias. However, individuals with elevated negative emotionality, a personality trait linked to the development of anxiety disorders, displayed a global pessimism and learning differences that impeded accurate expectations and predicted future anxiety symptoms. A sensitivity to PEs combined with an aversion to negative PEs may result in a pessimistic and inaccurate model of the world, leading to anxiety.

Automated summary

Organisms learn from prediction errors to predict the future. Laboratory studies have shown that humans use prediction errors to update expectations and link individual differences in prediction error learning to internalizing disorders. However, it is unclear whether prediction error learning occurs in naturalistic, high-stakes contexts and whether individual differences in prediction error learning predict psychopathology risk.