Consistency of Seasonal Mean and Extreme Precipitation Projections Over Europe Across a Range of Climate Model Ensembles

Uncertainties of regional precipitation projections are substantial, and users of such projections face the so-called practitioners dilemma: a plethora of projections with different models from different ensembles of different types and generations are available. But the consistency of these projections has not been systematically assessed, such that no clear guidance about the use of these ensembles exists. Therefore, we systematically compare, separately for each season, projections of mean precipitation and extremes of daily precipitation over Europe across a wide range of climate model ensembles. We specifically consider the global climate model ensembles CMIP3, CMIP5, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and HighresMIP as well as the regional climate model ensembles ENSEMBLES and EURO-CORDEX. All considered ensembles agree in their large-scale patterns of changes for both mean and extreme daily precipitation, but at the regional scale, substantial discrepancies and inconsistencies are evident. Within and across ensemble spread is strongest in summer, in particular for the drying trend over the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe. CMIP5 and CMIP6 are broadly consistent. The regional climate model (RCM) ensembles modify the signals of the driving global climate models indicating potential added value. The high resolution of the RCM and HighresMIP ensembles seems to be key over the Alps for summer precipitation. Our study provides important information for users of climate projections as it helps to establish continuity across generations and types of climate models, and aids the design of new climate impact studies.

Automated summary

The uncertainties of regional precipitation projections are significant. There are many projections using different models from different ensembles, but their consistency has not been systematically evaluated. This study compares projections of mean precipitation and extremes of daily precipitation across a wide range of climate model ensembles, revealing both large-scale patterns of changes and substantial discrepancies at the regional scale.