Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest geometrid outbreaks

We highlight recent developments and avenues for advancement, which can improve insight into the causes of changes in the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest Geometridea moth species (hereafter 'geometrids'). Some forest geometrids possess fundamental biological traits, which make them particularly liable to outbreak range expansions and host shifts mitigated by climate change. Indeed, recently observed changes in geometrid spatiotemporal dynamics represent both new research opportunities and challenges for empirically testing drivers of intra-and interspecific spatial synchrony, including the role of trophic interactions and biological traits (e.g. dispersal ability). We advocate that the emerging field of near-term ecological forecasting holds promise for studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest geometrids and could be tailored to give both accurate predictions at management -relevant timescales and new insights into the mechanisms that underlie spatiotemporal population dynamics.

Automated summary

This article discusses recent developments and advancements in understanding the causes of changes in the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest Geometridea moth species (geometrids). Certain biological traits of forest geometrids make them vulnerable to outbreak range expansions and host shifts due to climate change. The observed changes in geometrid spatiotemporal dynamics present new research opportunities and challenges for testing the drivers of intra-and interspecific spatial synchrony, including trophic interactions and biological traits (e.g. dispersal ability). The emerging field of near-term ecological forecasting holds promise for studying the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest geometrids, providing accurate predictions and insights into the underlying mechanisms.