Spatio-Temporal Forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance Using Bayesian Inference

Accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting promotes power grid stability. Most of the research on solar irradiance forecasting has been based on a single-site analysis. It is crucial to explore multisite modeling to capture variations in weather conditions between various sites, thereby producing a more robust model. In this research, we propose the use of spatial regression coupled with Gaussian Process Regression (GP Spatial) and the GP Autoregressive Spatial model (GP-AR Spatial) for the prediction of GHI using data from seven radiometric stations from South Africa and one from Namibia. The results of the proposed methods were compared with a benchmark model, the Linear Spatial Temporal Regression (LSTR) model. Five validation sets each comprised of three stations were chosen. For each validation set, the remaining five stations were used for training. Based on root mean square error, the GP model gave the most accurate forecasts across the validation sets. These results were confirmed by the statistical significance tests using the Giacommini-White test. In terms of coverage probability, there was a 100% coverage on three validation sets and the other two had 97% and 99%. The GP model dominated the other two models. One of the study's contributions is using standardized forecasts and including a nonlinear trend covariate, which improved the accuracy of the forecasts. The forecasts were combined using a monotone composite quantile regression neural network and a quantile generalized additive model. This modeling framework could be useful to power utility companies in making informed decisions when planning power grid management, including large-scale solar power integration onto the power grid.

Automated summary

Accurate forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is crucial for power grid stability. This research proposes the use of spatial regression coupled with Gaussian Process Regression (GP Spatial) and the GP Autoregressive Spatial model (GP-AR Spatial) for GHI prediction. The results show that the GP model outperforms the benchmark model in terms of accuracy.