期刊
APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
卷 12, 期 22, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/app122211855
关键词
pavement distress initiation prediction; time-lag cross-correlation; logistic regression
类别
资金
- National key research and development program [2021YFB1600100]
- Shanghai Science and Technology Commission Project [21ZC2420800]
- Research Project of China State Construction Railway Investment & Engineering Group Co., Ltd. [CSCEC-2022-01]
This paper explores the relationship between distress initiation, weather, and geometric factors using high-frequency pavement distress data. A framework is designed to extract the initial time of pavement distress and a distress initiation prediction model is established. The results show that weather factors, considering the time-lag effect, can improve the model performance of distress initiation.
Pavement condition prediction plays a vital role in pavement maintenance. Many prediction models and analyses have been conducted based on long-term pavement condition data. However, the condition evaluation for road sections can hardly support daily routine maintenance. This paper uses high-frequency pavement distress data to explore the relationship between distress initiation, weather, and geometric factors. Firstly, a framework is designed to extract the initial time of pavement distress. Weather and geometric data are integrated to establish a pavement distress initiation dataset. Then, the time-lag cross-correlation analysis methods were utilized to explore the relationship between distress initiation and environmental factors. In addition, the logistic regression model is used to establish the distress initiation prediction model. Finally, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterions (BIC), and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of logistic regression models with or without time-lag variables are compared as performance measurements. The results show that pavement distress initiation is susceptible to weather factors and location relationships. Daily total precipitation, minimum temperature, and daily average temperature have a time delay effect on the initiation of the pavement distress. Distress initiation is negatively correlated with the distance from the nearby intersection and positively correlated with adjacent distresses. The weather factors, considering the time-lag effect, can improve the model performance of the distress initiation prediction model and provide support for emergency management after severe weather.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据