Joint modelling of longitudinal and lateral dynamics in lane-changing maneuvers

This study models a lane-changing event as two behaviourally interconnected phases: 'stay' and 'execution'. The model considers the 'stay' phase duration stochastically depending on external traffic conditions. The 'execution' phase is modelled as the longitudinal speed profile deployed to perform the lane change. The model comprises a Bayesian survival analysis to predict the probability of the stay duration before a new 'execution' phase while tackling the censoring issue of survival methods. Using naturalistic vehicular trajectory data, this paper quantifies what factors influence driver behaviour in lane-keeping and lane-changing execution. The parameter estimation results demonstrate that drivers' decisions on phase transitions are influenced by surrounding conditions, lane-changing purpose, directions, and departure lanes. The findings reveal that urgency (stemming from the purpose) and patience (satisfaction with the existing situation) are the main reasons for leaving the current lane. Adequate distances and relative speeds compared with surrounding vehicles induce or dissuade acceleration behaviour during the execution phase.

Automated summary

This study presents a model for lane-changing events, consisting of two interconnected phases: 'stay' and 'execution'. The model incorporates stochastic duration of the 'stay' phase based on external traffic conditions, and models the 'execution' phase using longitudinal speed profiles. Bayesian survival analysis is used to predict the probability of the stay duration before a new execution phase, addressing the censoring issue. Using real-world vehicle trajectory data, the study identifies factors influencing driver behavior in lane-keeping and lane-changing execution, such as surrounding conditions, lane-changing purpose, directions, and departure lanes. The findings highlight the impact of urgency and patience on lane-changing decisions, as well as the influence of distances and relative speeds with surrounding vehicles on acceleration behavior during the execution phase.