4.7 Article

Continued spring phenological advance under global warming hiatus over the Pan-Third Pole

期刊

FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE
卷 13, 期 -, 页码 -

出版社

FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2022.1071858

关键词

spring phenology; alpine vegetation; asymmetric warming; water availability; warming hiatus

资金

  1. Strategic Priority Research Program (A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [XDA19070303]
  2. Science and Technology Major Project of Tibetan Autonomous Region of China [XZ202201ZD0005G01]
  3. Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program [2019QZKK0405, 2022QZKK0101]
  4. National Natural Science Foundation of China [41901136, 41801097]

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Research shows that during the warming hiatus, the spring phenology in the Pan-Third Pole region continues to advance due to increased preseason minimum temperature and water availability. The importance of precipitation in spring phenological changes is also increasing, potentially shifting the control from temperature to precipitation in a warmer world.
The global surface temperature has witnessed a warming hiatus in the first decade of this century, but how this slowing down of warming will impact spring phenology over Pan-Third Pole remains unclear. Here, we combined multiple satellite-derived vegetation indices with eddy covariance datasets to evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in spring phenological changes over the Pan-Third Pole. We found that the spring phenology over Pan-Third Pole continues to advance at the rate of 4.8 days decade(-1) during the warming hiatus period, which is contrasted to a non-significant change over the northern hemisphere. Such a significant and continued advance in spring phenology was mainly attributed to an increase in preseason minimum temperature and water availability. Moreover, there is an overall increasing importance of precipitation on changes in spring phenology during the last four decades. We further demonstrated that this increasingly negative correlation was also found across more than two-thirds of the dryland region, tentatively suggesting that spring phenological changes might shift from temperature to precipitation-controlled over the Pan-Third Pole in a warmer world.

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