Regional Spatiotemporal Patterns of Fire in the Eurasian Subarctic Based on Satellite Imagery

The fire risks in the vast Eurasian Subarctic are increasing, raising concerns for both local and global climate systems. Although some studies have addressed this problem, their conclusions only draw from relatively lower resolution data, and the sub-regional analysis of fire patterns in this area is lacking. In this paper, using a huge amount of multi-temporal and multi-resolution remotely sensed data, derived products, and weather data between the period 2001 and 2021, we reveal several novel and recent findings concerning regional and overall fire patterns in the Eurasian Subarctic. First, we discovered that fire occurrence over the period 2001 and 2021 varied by sub-region within the Eurasian Subarctic, with perennial low fire incidence in the East European and West Siberian Plain, increasing fire incidence in the Central Siberian Plateau, and marked periodicity of fire in the East Siberian Highlands. Second, we reveal the larger scale of individual fires in the Eurasian Subarctic compared to the adjacent region to the south, with fires of longer duration (13 vs. 8 days), larger daily expansion area (7.5 vs. 3.0 km(2)/d), and faster propagation (442 vs. 280 m/d). Third, the northern limit of fire has extended poleward approximately 1.5 degrees during the study period. Fourth, the start dates of fire seasons in Eurasian Subarctic, dominated by the Central Siberian Plateau, has advanced at a rate of 1.4 days per year. We also analyzed the factors resulting in the regional patterns of fire incidence including weather, human activity, land cover, and landscape structure. Our findings not only increase the knowledge of regional fire patterns and trends in Eurasian Subarctic but also will benefit the design of special fire management policies.

Automated summary

In this paper, using a large amount of remote sensing and weather data, the authors reveal new findings about fire patterns in the Eurasian Subarctic, including variations in fire occurrence among sub-regions, differences in fire size and propagation speed compared to adjacent regions, and the advancing start dates of fire seasons. The factors contributing to regional fire patterns are also analyzed.