A blueprint for synthetic control methodology: a causal inference tool for evaluating natural experiments in population health

Interventions in emergencies such as the covid-19 pandemic may need rapid supporting evidence. Randomised trials in these situations are often impractical to design or deliver. One technique for estimating the causal effect of an intervention using observational data is the synthetic control method. This article outlines the method and its assumptions, best practice interpretation, and application.

Automated summary

This article introduces the synthetic control method, which estimates the causal effect of an intervention using observational data. Randomised trials are often difficult to conduct in emergencies, and the synthetic control method can serve as an alternative.