Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus) Habitat Suitability by Using Ensemble Modeling in Asia Wetlands

The Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus) is the third rarest and the most endangered crane species in the world. This study aimed at predicting the effect of climate change on Siberian Crane habitat suitability of breeding range and wintering range in Asia Wetlands by using ensemble modeling under future climate scenarios before the year 2050. In this regard, we used 4 modeling methods, Surface Range Envelop (SRE), Random Forest (RF), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to determine the relationships between the species occurrence and bioclimatic variables under the ensemble framework by using Biomod2 and R software. The results showed that the AUC values were greater than 0.9 and functioning of all models was excellent. The Temperature Seasonality and Temperature Annual Range in the breeding range and Temperature Seasonality and Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter in the wintering range had the most important role for habitat suitability of this species and respectively 105.64% and 136.27% changes was justified in Siberian Crane habitat suitability. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenario for Siberian Crane breeding and wintering range, it is possible that climate change will cause a 100% loss of suitable habitat in West Sibera, and a 25.28% loss in Iran and China by 2050. The results of this study can be used in planning and conservation of crane species.

Automated summary

This study aimed to predict the effect of climate change on the habitat suitability of Siberian Crane in breeding and wintering ranges in Asia Wetlands. Four modeling methods were used to determine the relationships between the species occurrence and bioclimatic variables. The results showed that temperature seasonality and range had the most important role in habitat suitability, and climate change could result in significant habitat loss by 2050.