4.5 Article

Expected endpoints from future chikungunya vaccine trial sites informed by serological data and modeling

期刊

VACCINE
卷 41, 期 1, 页码 182-192

出版社

ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.11.028

关键词

Age -stratified serological data; Hypothetical trial; Mathematical model; Phase -III vaccine trial; Selecting target population; Site selection

向作者/读者索取更多资源

There has been an increased interest in developing a vaccine for chikungunya in recent decades due to its unpredictable transmission. To inform decision making on vaccine trials, a new framework was developed to project the expected number of endpoint events at a given site using serological data and an SIR transmission model. The results suggest that some sites may have sufficient transmission potential and susceptibility to support future vaccine trials.
In recent decades, there has been an increased interest in developing a vaccine for chikungunya. However, due to its unpredictable transmission, planning for a chikungunya vaccine trial is challenging. To inform decision making on the selection of sites for a vaccine efficacy trial, we developed a new framework for projecting the expected number of endpoint events at a given site. In this framework, we first accounted for population immunity using serological data collated from a systematic review and used it to estimate parameters related to the timing and size of past outbreaks, as predicted by an SIR transmission model. Then, we used that model to project the infection attack rate of a hypothetical future outbreak, in the event that one were to occur at the time of a future trial. This informed projections of how many endpoint events could be expected if a trial were to take place at that site. Our results suggest that some sites may have sufficient transmission potential and susceptibility to support future vaccine trials, in the event that an outbreak were to occur at those sites. In general, we conclude that sites that have experienced outbreaks within the past 10 years may be poorer targets for chikungunya vaccine efficacy trials in the near future. Our framework also generates projections of the numbers of endpoint events by age, which could inform study participant recruitment efforts. (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.5
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

暂无数据
暂无数据