Equilibrium analysis of trip demand for autonomous taxi services in Nagoya, Japan

In recent years, the implementation of autonomous vehicles has been widely discussed world-wide. In particular, urban transportation demand is expected to change significantly when autonomous taxis (ATs) are introduced. Thus, planners must anticipate changes in traffic con-ditions and the number of users of other transport modes. Therefore, changes in travel behavior and traffic conditions must be quantified with respect to comprehensive changes in the service level of ATs, including changes in fares and the possibility of delays. However, previous studies have not sufficiently considered factors such as the intention to use ATs, the interrelationship between mode choice and traffic congestion, and the impact of ATs on public transit. Therefore, they are not applicable to city-level transportation demand forecasts. The purpose of this study was to propose an easily implementable method for forecasting urban transportation demand when AT services are adopted, which overcomes such problems. In this study, we developed a combined modal split-assignment model and analyzed the effects of various AT service imple-mentation scenarios in Nagoya, Japan. The results showed that the number of trips using taxis will increase by a factor of 11 when AT services are implemented. Additionally, the usage of other modes is expected to decrease by 4%-5%, except for rail usage with a decrease of 1.5%.

Automated summary

This study aimed to propose an easily implementable method for forecasting urban transportation demand when autonomous taxi services are adopted. The results showed an increase in the number of trips using taxis, while the usage of other modes is expected to decrease.