Enhancing wind power forecast accuracy using the weather research and forecasting numerical model-based features and artificial neuronal networks

Forecasting with accuracy the quantity of energy produced by wind power plants is crucial to enabling its optimal integration into power systems and electricity markets. Despite the remarkable improvements in the wind forecasting systems in recent years, large errors can still be observed, especially for longer time horizons. This work focuses on identifying new numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based features aiming to improve the overall quality of wind power forecasts. The methodology also incorporates a sequential forward feature selection algorithm. This algorithm was designed to select iteratively the meteorological features which minimize the wind forecast errors. The methodology was applied separately to seven wind parks in Portugal with different climate characteristics. The proposed approach allowed a reduction between 13% and 37% in the root mean square errors of wind power forecasts, compared with a baseline scenario. While the meteorological features identified for each wind park showed similarities within regions with analogous wind power generation profiles, each wind park required specific meteorological parameters as input data to obtain the best performance. Thus, the results show to be crucial to select the most relevant features of a specific site to maximize the accuracy of a wind power forecast.

Automated summary

Accurately predicting the quantity of energy produced by wind power plants is crucial for optimal integration into power systems and markets. This study proposes a new feature identification method based on numerical weather prediction and incorporates a sequential forward feature selection algorithm to reduce wind power forecast errors. The results show that specific meteorological parameters are necessary for different wind parks to achieve the best performance.