Tradeoffs in forest resilience to satellite-based estimates of water and productivity losses

Climate change is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle via increased evapotranspiration (ET). Changes in ET have important consequences for water-related ecosystem services as well as for forest produc-tivity. Forests play a critical role in ET: active trees sequester carbon at the expense of losing water, yet if they are not active, water remains in the trees, but productivity stalls. We estimated the capacity of forests to recover (resilience) from extreme water or productivity losses based on modeled ET through remote sensing methods across the conterminous USA. Results show there is a spatial tradeoff in resilience to water or productivity losses. Forests were more resilient to water loss in the drier west, and more resilient to productivity loss in the wetter east. Still, resilience was highly heterogeneous across the continent. Projections under climate change indicate both declines and increases of up to 13% in forest resilience, with broad regional trends but high spatial het-erogeneity within regions. This study brings crucial satellite-based insights on how water dynamics, and consequentially productivity and water provision in forests, might be impacted by climate change.

Automated summary

Climate change is forecasted to enhance the global hydrological cycle through increased ET. The changes in ET have significant implications for water-related ecosystem services and forest productivity. Forests are vital for ET as active trees sequester carbon but lose water, while inactive trees retain water but have reduced productivity. This study estimates the resilience of forests in recovering from extreme water or productivity losses across the US using remote sensing methods. The findings reveal spatial trade-offs in resilience, with forests in the drier west showing more resilience to water loss and forests in the wetter east exhibiting greater resilience to productivity loss. However, resilience varies greatly across the continent and climate change projections suggest a 13% decline or increase in forest resilience, with regional patterns and high spatial heterogeneity within regions. This research provides crucial insights into the impact of climate change on water dynamics, productivity, and water provision in forests using satellite-based observations.