The summer 2022 drought: a taste of future climate for the Po valley (Italy)?

The severe drought that affected large areas of Europe in Spring and Summer 2022 hit the Po valley (northern Italy) with an intense water scarcity crisis. Productive activities, particularly agriculture, suffered the consequences of water shortage, and the coastal regions of the Po Delta underwent extensive saltwater intrusion. By relying on observed discharge records and on precipitation data from reanalysis and climate models, we analyse the 2022 event in the framework of the recent past statistics and in future scenarios. Alongside with a projection of future rainfall regimes on the Po River basin in two climate change scenarios, our analysis shows that persistent negative rainfall anomalies like the ones that characterised the 2022 event, though unlikely to become a typical feature of future climate, could remarkably increase their frequency, particularly in a severe climate change condition. Moreover, their impacts will be magnified by rising temperatures and, in coastal areas, by rising sea level, enhancing the salinisation of agricultural lands and altering the dynamics of transitional ecosystems. While providing a first quantitative assessment of an event that struck a strategic productive and environmental region of the Italian territory, this brief communication points out the importance of a multi-disciplinary, basin-scale approach to climate change adaptation.

Automated summary

The severe drought in Europe in Spring and Summer 2022 had a significant impact on the Po valley in northern Italy, causing a water scarcity crisis and saltwater intrusion in coastal regions. Through the analysis of discharge records, precipitation data, and climate models, this study projected future rainfall regimes and demonstrated that although events like the 2022 drought may not become typical, their frequency could increase under severe climate change conditions. Rising temperatures and sea levels will further amplify the impacts, affecting agricultural lands and transitional ecosystems. This research highlights the importance of a multidisciplinary, basin-scale approach to climate change adaptation.