Reflecting the energy transition from a European perspective and in the global context-Relevance of solar photovoltaics benchmarking two ambitious scenarios

Multiple energy-related crises require a fast transition towards a sustainable energy system. The European Green Deal aims for zero CO2 emission by 2050, while accelerating climate change impacts obligate a faster phase-out of fossil fuels. Energy transition studies for Europe at and near 100% renewable energy are used as a benchmark for two newly introduced scenarios for Europe reaching zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and 2040. A technology-rich energy system model was applied in hourly resolution for Europe in 20 interconnected regions and in full sector coupling covering all energy demands. The results reveal a cost-neutral energy transition towards 2050 based on declining levelised cost of electricity and a pathway with 9% higher energy costs leading to 17% lower total CO2 emissions with an accelerated energy transition by 2040. The two scenarios find shares of solar photovoltaic (PV) in total generation of 61%-63% by 2050, the highest ever estimated for Europe, still below the highest global average shares ranging between 75% and 77% form three independent studies. The central energy system components are solar PV, wind power, batteries, electrolysers and CO2 direct air capture for carbon capture and utilisation. The core characteristic of the European energy future may be best described by a power-to-X economy, which may evolve on the global scale to a solar-to-X economy.

Automated summary

Europe needs to accelerate its energy transition to achieve zero CO2 emissions by 2050. This study presents two new scenarios for reaching zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and 2040. The results show that the energy transition is cost-neutral and an accelerated transition can lead to lower total CO2 emissions.