Kawasaki disease coronary artery lesions prediction with monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of the monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio (MHR) in Kawasaki disease (KD) complicated with coronary artery lesions (CALs) and to construct a nomogram prediction model. METHODS: The medical records of KD inpatients diagnosed in the Department of Pediatrics of Lanzhou University Second Hospital from May 2015 to September 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. ROC curves were applied to evaluate the predictive value of MHR in KD complicated with CALs, and logistic regression analysis was used to screen independent risk factors. We constructed a nomogram model and performed internal validation. RESULTS: A total of 568 KD patients were enrolled in the study. MHR was significantly higher in KD patients complicated with CALs and was identified as an independent risk factor for CALs (OR: 1.604, 95% CI: 1.292-1.990). The area under the ROC curve for MHR in predicting CALs was 0.661. The C-index of the nomogram model constructed by incorporating MHR was 0.725 (95% CI: 0.682-0.768), and the calibration curve revealed good agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: MHR may not be suitable as a single biomarker to predict the occurrence of CALs, but the nomogram model constructed in combination with other independent risk factors had acceptable predictive performance.

Automated summary

This study evaluated the predictive value of the monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio (MHR) in Kawasaki disease (KD) complicated with coronary artery lesions (CALs) and constructed a nomogram prediction model. The results showed that MHR has predictive value in predicting CALs in KD.