Evaluating rockfalls at a historical settlement in the Ihlara Valley (Cappadocia, Turkey) using kinematic, numerical, 2D trajectory, and risk rating methods

Rockfalls are one of the most dangerous natural events in hilly terrains, and they substantially threaten residential areas and transport corridors in these environments. This study is aimed to analyze the risk of rockfall from a slope to nearby houses in a historical settlement with past rockfall histories. It contains numerous applications to study rockfall danger from different points of view (e.g., kinematics, numerical stability analysis, risk assessment, 2D trajectory). The rockfall kinematics revealed the statistics for different structurally controlled failure modes among the surveyed slope discontinuities, especially wedge type and block toppling were the most significant ones. Finite element analysis showed that the slope was stable under the natural condition with a safety factor of 2.19. The rockfall risk rating system calculated a medium risk for the houses downstream. Based on the field measurements, a possible rockfall profile was determined and located as an input in the 2D rockfall trajectory program. The rigid-body impact model runs utilized various shapes and sizes of blocks to simulate the rockfall events realistically. According to the 2D trajectory model results, there was no rockfall danger for the investigated downslope houses. The study showed the importance of using different analysis techniques to solve rockfall risk in protected areas based on scientific and rational approaches.

Automated summary

This study aimed to analyze the risk of rockfall from a slope to nearby houses in a historical settlement. Various methods were used to study the rockfall dynamics, stability analysis, and risk assessment. The results showed that the slope was stable under natural conditions, with a medium risk assessment for downstream houses. The study emphasized the importance of using different analysis techniques to address rockfall risk in protected areas.