期刊
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
卷 377, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134177
关键词
Hydrogen energy industry chain; Industrial chain coordination; PLS regression Analysis; System dynamics modeling and simulation; Improvement countermeasures
资金
- Chinese National Funding of Social Sciences
- Natural Science Fund of Shandong Prov-ince
- [20BTJ060]
- [ZR2020MGo65]
As the hydrogen energy industry chain is in its early stage in China, the lack of coordination poses a hindrance to its development. This study evaluates the coordinated development capacity (CDC) of China's hydrogen energy industry chain and analyzes the main factors affecting it. The results show an overall upward trend in China's CDC of the hydrogen energy industry chain, with variations between different periods. Technology and policy support have the strongest influence among the main factors.
As the hydrogen energy industry chain is in the initial stage in China, the lack of coordination problem has become an obstacle to its development, but there is little research in this field. To solve this problem, after defining the coordinated development capacity (CDC) of China's hydrogen energy industry chain, this study evaluates China's CDC of the hydrogen energy industry chain from 2015 to 2021 by using the entropy method and empirically analyzes the action of the main factors by using partial least squares regression (PLS). Then, a system dynamics model of the coordinated development of the hydrogen energy industry chain is constructed to simulate the operation of China's hydrogen energy industry chain system under different situations from 2016 to 2030. The results show that the CDC of the hydrogen energy industry chain in China generally shows an upward trend, but there are differences in the upward trend between the 2015-2017 period and the 2018-2021 period. The effect of each main influencing factor is also different, among which the influence of technology and policy support is stronger. Finally, this study found that the current stage is not the optimal operation state of China's hydrogen energy industry chain coordination system according to the results of the system dynamics simulation. All the simulations with different parameters indicate that the government-enterprise cooperation is the best way to realize the coordinated development of the hydrogen energy industry chain.
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