Simulation study on carbon emission of China's electricity supply and demand under the dual-carbon target

As the world's largest developing country, China has set the target of reaching carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. China's power sector faces many challenges in reducing carbon emissions. This article forecasts electricity consumption from 2021 to 2060 by selecting five influential elements on power demand. Furthermore, the system dynamics model simulates the carbon emission system on the supply and demand side of the power industry. This paper innovatively incorporates the technology factor of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) into the supply-side model. In this study, the process of carbon neutrality is separated into three stages, including carbon peak stage (2020-2030), deep low-carbon stage (2030-2050) and zero-carbon stage (2050-2060). The factors of energy storage technology and CCUS technology make significant contribu-tions in the latter two stages. Based on the different development levels of the variables, three scenarios are set as business-as-usual scenario (BAU), low carbon scenario(LC) and ultra-low carbon scenario (ULC). Then scenario analysis is employed to simulate the carbon emission in the future. The scheme under the ULC scenario is the optimal solution to achieve carbon neutrality. Improving flexible transition of thermal power units and pro-moting the growth of renewable energy are China's primary strategies of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality.

Automated summary

As the world's largest developing country, China has set ambitious carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets for 2030 and 2060 respectively. With a focus on the power sector, this study utilizes a system dynamics model to simulate carbon emission systems and proposes a three-stage process for achieving carbon neutrality. Through scenario analysis, it is determined that a strategy involving flexible transition of thermal power units and promotion of renewable energy growth is the optimal solution for China to reach carbon neutrality.