Achievement of carbon peak goals in China?s road transport-possibilities and pathways

China's road transport sector is pursuing an early carbon peak and ensuing significant carbon reductions. By combining a comprehensive bottom-up model with Monte Carlo simulation, this study evaluates the achievement probabilities of carbon peak goals of China's road transport. The results indicate that without policy intervention, realizing carbon peaking before 2028 is likely to occur, whereas achieving a 20% of carbon reduction by 2035 is difficult, with a probability of approximately 15%. Delivering current policy targets is of no effect on bringing forward carbon peak time or expanding emission reductions, mainly due to the insufficiency of electrification rate targets. This study suggests increasing the electrification rate targets and employing real-world fuel effi-ciency values as the base for measuring policy compliance. Further actions are recommended, such as proposing a sales ban on high fuel consumption vehicles, imposing carbon taxes, and strengthening emphasis on the truck sector.

Automated summary

China's road transport sector is striving to achieve an early carbon peak and significant emissions reductions. This study evaluates the probabilities of achieving carbon peak goals and reduction targets using a comprehensive model and Monte Carlo simulation. The results suggest that carbon peaking before 2028 is likely without intervention, but achieving a 20% reduction by 2035 is difficult with only a 15% probability. The study proposes increasing electrification rate targets and incorporating real-world fuel efficiency values in policy compliance measurements. Additional actions such as banning high fuel consumption vehicles, implementing carbon taxes, and focusing on the truck sector are recommended.