Stable landings mask irreversible community reorganizations in an overexploited Mediterranean ecosystem

Cumulative human pressures and climate change can induce nonlinear discontinuous dynamics in ecosystems, known as regime shifts. Regime shifts typically imply hysteresis, a lacking or delayed system response when pressures are reverted, which can frustrate restoration efforts. Here, we investigate whether the northern Adriatic Sea fish and macroinvertebrate community, as depicted by commercial fishery landings, has undergone regime shifts over the last 40 years, and the reversibility of such changes. We use a stochastic cusp model to show that, under the interactive effect of fishing pressure and water warming, the community reorganized through discontinuous changes. We found that part of the community has now reached a new stable state, implying that a recovery towards previous baselines might be impossible. Interestingly, total landings remained constant across decades, masking the low resilience of the community. Our study reveals the importance of carefully assessing regime shifts and resilience in marine ecosystems under cumulative pressures and advocates for their inclusion into management.

Automated summary

This study investigates the regime shifts in the fish and macroinvertebrate community of the northern Adriatic Sea over the past 40 years. The results show that a part of the community has reached a new stable state, making recovery to previous baselines unlikely. The constant total landings mask the low resilience of the community. The study highlights the importance of assessing regime shifts and resilience in marine ecosystem management.