Extreme temperatures, mortality, and adaptation: Evidence from the county level in China

Extreme temperatures are known to cause adverse health outcomes. Yet knowledge on the magnitude of this effect in developing countries is limited due to data availability and reliability issues. Collecting data for 2872 counties in China, we estimate the effects of daily temperatures on the monthly mortality rate. The results indicate that an additional day for which the maximum temperature is 38 ? or above on average increases the monthly mortality rate by about 1.7% relative to if that day's maximum temperature had been in the range 16-21 ?. This is after deducting deaths harvested from the subsequent month. Higher gross domestic product per capita at the county level is associated with lower mortality effects of hot and cold days. Improved dwelling conditions are found to be associated with a lower mortality effect of hot days and improved local healthcare infrastructure to be associated with a lower mortality effect of cold days. In the absence of strong adaptation efforts, the estimates suggest net upward pressure on annual mortality rates over coming decades in many populous counties, especially under more extreme climate change scenarios.

Automated summary

Extreme temperatures can have adverse health effects, but limited data availability and reliability in developing countries hinders our understanding of the magnitude of this impact. Using data from 2872 counties in China, we found that a daily maximum temperature of 38 ? or above increases the monthly mortality rate by approximately 1.7% compared to a maximum temperature in the range of 16-21 ?. Higher GDP per capita at the county level is associated with lower mortality effects, and improvements in dwelling conditions and local healthcare infrastructure also contribute to reducing mortality effects. Without strong adaptation efforts, there may be upward pressure on annual mortality rates in populous counties, particularly under more extreme climate change scenarios.