Net-zero transition of the global chemical industry with CO2-feedstock by 2050: feasible yet challenging

Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) have been projected by the power and industrial sectors to play a vital role towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we aim to explore the feasibility of a global chemical industry that fully relies on CO2 as its carbon source in 2050. We project the global annual CO2 demand as chemical feedstock to be 2.2-3.1 gigatonnes (Gt), well within the possible range of supply (5.2-13.9 Gt) from the power, cement, steel, and kraft pulp sectors. Hence, feedstock availability is not a constraint factor for the transition towards a fully CO2-based chemical industry on the global basis, with the exception of few regions that could face local supply shortages, such as the Middle East. We further conduct life cycle assessment to examine the environmental benefits on climate change and the trade-offs of particulate matter-related health impacts induced by carbon capture. We conclude that CO2 captured from solid biomass-fired power plants and kraft pulp mills in Europe would have the least environmental and health impacts, and that India and China should prioritize low-impact regional electricity supply before a large-scale deployment of CCUS. Finally, two bottom-up case studies of China and the Middle East illustrate how the total regional environmental and health impacts from carbon capture can be minimized by optimizing its supply sources and transport, requiring cross-sectoral cooperation and early planning of infrastructure. Overall, capture and utilization of unabatable industrial waste CO2 as chemical feedstock can be a feasible way for the net-zero transition of the industry, while concerted efforts are yet needed to build up the carbon-capture-and-utilization value chain around the world.

Automated summary

This study explores the feasibility of a global chemical industry relying on CO2 as its carbon source in 2050. The global annual CO2 demand as chemical feedstock is projected to be 2.2-3.1 Gt, well within the possible supply range from various sectors. Feedstock availability is not a constraint, except for a few regions like the Middle East. The environmental benefits and trade-offs of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) are assessed, and it is concluded that capturing CO2 from biomass-fired power plants and pulp mills in Europe would have the least environmental and health impacts.