Modeling spatio-temporal assessment of land use land cover of Lahore and its impact on land surface temperature using multi-spectral remote sensing data

Urban sprawl, also widely known as urbanization, is one of the significant problems in the world. This research aims to assess and predict the urban growth and impact on land surface temperature (LST) of Lahore as well as land use and land cover (LULC) with a cellular automata Markov chain (CA-Markov chain). LULC and LST distributions were mapped using Landsat (5, 7, and 8) data from 1990, 2004, and 2018. Long-term changes to the landscape were simulated using a CA-Markov model at 14-year intervals from 2018 to 2046. Results indicate that the built-up area was increased from 342.54 (18.41%) to 720.31 (38.71%) km(2). Meanwhile, barren land, water, and vegetation area was decreased from 728.63 (39.16%) to 544.83 (29.28%) km(2), from 64.85 (3.49%) to 34.78 (1.87%) km(2), and from 724.53 (38.94%) to 560.63 (30.13%) km(2), respectively. In addition, urban index, a non-vegetation index, accurately predicted LST, showing the maximum correlation R-2 = 0.87 with respect to retrieved LST. According to CA-Markov chain analysis, we can predict the growth of built-up area from 830.22 to 955.53 km(2) between 2032 and 2046, based on the development from 1990 to 2018. As urban index as the predictor anticipated that the LST 20-23 degrees C and 24-27 degrees C, regions would all decline in coverage from 5.30 to 4.79% and 15.79 to 13.77% in 2032 and 2046, while the temperature 36-39 degrees C regions would all grow in coverage from 15.60 to 17.21% of the city. Our results indicate severe conditions, and the authorities should consider some strategies to mitigate this problem. These findings are significant for the planning and development division to ensure the long-term usage of land resources for urbanization expansion projects in the future.

Automated summary

This study used a cellular automata Markov chain model to assess and predict the impact of urban growth on land use and land surface temperature in Lahore. The results showed an increase in built-up area and decrease in barren land, water, and vegetation area. These findings are important for the planning and development division to ensure the long-term usage of land resources for urbanization expansion projects in the future.