Present-day and future PM2.5 and O3-related global and regional premature mortality in the EVAv6.0 health impact assessment model

We used the EVAv6.0 system to estimate the present (2015) and future (2015-2050) global PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortalities, using simulated surface concentrations from the GISS-E2.1-G Earth system model. The PM2.5-related global premature mortality is estimated to be 4.3 and 4.4 million by the non-linear and linear models, respectively. Ischemic heart diseases are found to be the leading cause of PM2.5-related premature deaths, contributing by 35% globally. Both long-term and short-term O3-related premature deaths are estimated to be around 1 million, globally. Overall, PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortality leads to 5.3-5.4 million premature deaths, globally. The global burden of premature deaths is mainly driven by the Asian region, which in 2015 contributes by 75% of the total global premature deaths. An increase from 6.2% to 8% in the PM2.5 relative risk as recommended by the WHO leads to an increase of PM2.5-related premature mortality by 28%, to 5.7 million. Finally, bias correcting the simulated PM2.5 concentrations in 2015 leads to an increase of up to 73% in the global PM2.5-related premature mortality, leading to a total number of global premature deaths of up to 7.7 million, implying the necessity of bias correction to get more robust health burden estimates. PM2.5 and O3 -related premature mortality in 2050 decreases by up to 57% and 18%, respectively, due to emission reductions alone. However, the projected increase and aging of the population leads to increases of premature mortality by up to a factor of 2, showing that the population exposed to air pollution is more important than the level of air pollutants, highlighting that the population dynamics should be considered when setting up health assessment systems.

Automated summary

We estimated the current and future global premature deaths related to PM2.5 and O3 using the EVAv6.0 system and simulated surface concentrations. The global PM2.5-related premature mortality is estimated to be 4.3 and 4.4 million by the non-linear and linear models, respectively. Ischemic heart diseases contribute by 35% to PM2.5-related premature deaths globally. Both long-term and short-term O3-related premature deaths are estimated to be around 1 million, globally. The global burden of premature deaths is mainly driven by the Asian region, contributing 75% of the total global premature deaths in 2015. An increase in the PM2.5 relative risk recommended by the WHO leads to an increase of PM2.5-related premature mortality by 28%, to 5.7 million. Bias correcting the simulated PM2.5 concentrations in 2015 leads to an increase of up to 73% in the global PM2.5-related premature mortality, resulting in a total of up to 7.7 million global premature deaths, highlighting the necessity of bias correction for more robust health burden estimates. PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortality in 2050 decreases due to emission reductions alone, but the projected increase and aging of the population lead to increases in premature mortality, emphasizing the importance of considering population dynamics in health assessment systems.