Drivers and evolution of low-carbon development in China?s transportation industry: An integrated analytical approach

Exploring the intrinsic mechanism and potential evolution of carbon emissions and decoupling states are crucial to the low-carbon development of China's transportation industry. We propose an integrated analytical approach that combines the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM), Tapio, and scenario-based dynamic prediction method to broaden the research framework of low-carbon development in transportation. This proposed approach was employed to investigate the drivers for changes in the carbon emissions and decoupling status of China's transportation during 2005-2019 and the potential evolutionary trajectories during 2021-2030 under different scenarios. The empirical results show that: (1) Investment is the primary contributor to increasing carbon emissions from the transportation industry, the carbon intensity of investment is the main inhibitory factor, and these effects vary widely across the regions of China. (2) Transportation generally exhibits weak decoupling with large fluctuations. The drivers of decoupling transitions are similar to those of changes in carbon emission, but regional differences also exist. (3) The potential carbon emissions and future decoupling states of transportation differ greatly in the three scenarios, of which both peak carbon and strong decoupling states occur in the enhanced low-carbon scenario (ELS).

Automated summary

This study proposes an integrated analytical approach to explore the intrinsic mechanism and potential evolution of low-carbon development in China's transportation industry. The results show that investment is the primary contributor to increasing carbon emissions, while carbon intensity acts as the main inhibitory factor. Transportation exhibits weak decoupling with large fluctuations.