期刊
COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE
卷 205, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.compag.2022.107572
关键词
Machine learning; Prediction; Phenological phase; Flower induction; Chilling accumulation; Heat accumulation; Relative humidity
In this study, machine learning models were used to predict the duration of flower induction for four litchi varieties. The predictive models took into account factors such as tree age, variety, and dynamic environmental and climate variables. The models achieved high accuracy in validation and blind testing.
The flower induction is a critical physiological change during which vegetative buds transit to floral buds. The duration of flower induction (DFI) for litchi plays determinative role for the success and the quality of flowering. It is hard to be reliably predicted because multiple factors including ages of trees, variety and dynamically environmental and climate variables have important impacts. Here we predicted the DFI for four litchi varieties using random forest (RF) implicit and stepwise regression (STR) explicit machine learning models. These models were trained and validated from the data consisting phenological phases from the mature of the last autumn shoots to the flower shedding, and the corresponding meteorological factors from 2009 to 2020. The DFI predictive models consider timescales from 1 h up to 10 days, and the determination coefficients from the 5-fold cross validation achieves 0.96 to 0.99. The high accuracy was maintained in the blind test, with the determination coefficients of 0.97-0.98 for the data in 2019 and 0.78-0.88 for 2020. The reliability is still sufficient to
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