High resolution projections for extreme temperatures and precipitation over Greece

The present study investigated future temperature and precipitation changes over Greece using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF was driven by EC-EARTH over Greece at very high resolution for the historical period (1980-2004), along with projected simulations, in the near future (2025-2049) and far future (2075-2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). Climatic variables were produced at 5-km grid spacing and 6-h interval. The historical simulation was evaluated against the available station observations. The analysis showed that the model underestimated the maximum temperatures and slightly overestimated the minimum temperatures. Also, the model simulated a small dry bias in precipitation with an excellent representation of the spatial patterns. The model projections for temperature under the two emission scenarios compared to the historical simulation revealed a robust magnitude of future warming with the most pronounced changes predominantly over the eastern areas of the country under the RCP8.5 in the far future. Projected precipitation changes were more evident in the far future with an overall decrease of the annual precipitation all over the eastern part of the country (with islands included) with the most dramatic reductions (above 40%) of seasonal precipitation observed under RCP8.5. Increases in the number of hot days were found everywhere with more pronounced changes over the plain areas under RCP8.5 in the far future. Significant increases of dry days were projected over the eastern part of the mainland and more intensely under RCP8.5 in the far future.

Automated summary

This study used the WRF model to investigate future temperature and precipitation changes in Greece. The model simulations revealed underestimation of maximum temperatures, slight overestimation of minimum temperatures, and a small dry bias in precipitation. The projections showed a robust magnitude of future warming, particularly in the eastern areas of Greece under the RCP8.5 scenario. Future precipitation changes indicated an overall decrease in annual precipitation, with the most dramatic reductions observed under RCP8.5. Increases in the number of hot days and dry days were also projected, particularly in the plain areas of Greece under the RCP8.5 scenario in the far future.