Nomogram to Predict Recurrence and Guide a Pragmatic Surveillance Strategy After Resection of Hepatoid Adenocarcinoma of the Stomach: A Retrospective Multicenter Study

Background An accurate recurrence risk assessment system and surveillance strategy for hepatoid adenocarcinoma of the stomach (HAS) remain poorly defined. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict postoperative recurrence of HAS and guide individually tailored surveillance strategies. Methods The study enrolled all patients with primary HAS who had undergone curative-intent resection at 14 institutions from 2004 to 2019. Clinicopathologic variables with statistical significance in the multivariate Cox regression were incorporated into a nomogram to build a recurrence predictive model. Results The nomogram of recurrence-free survival (RFS) based on independent prognostic factors, including age, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen, number of examined lymph nodes, perineural invasion, and lymph node ratio, achieved a C-index of 0.723 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.674-0.772) in the whole cohort, which was significantly higher than those of the eighth American Joint Committed on Cancer (AJCC) staging system (C-index, 0.629; 95% CI, 0.573-0.685; P < 0.001). The nomogram accurately stratified patients into low-, middle-, and high-risk groups of postoperative recurrence. The postoperative recurrence risk rates for patients in the middle- and high-risk groups were respectively 3 and 10 times higher than for the low-risk group. The patients in the middle- and high-risk groups showed more recurrence and metastasis, particularly multiple site metastasis, within 36 months after the operation than those in the low-risk group (low, 2.2%; middle, 8.6%; high, 24.0%; P = 0.003). Conclusions The nomogram achieved good prediction of postoperative recurrence for the patients with HAS after radical resection. For the middle- and high-risk patients, more active surveillance and targeted examination methods should be adopted within 36 months after the operation, particularly for liver and multiple metastases.

Automated summary

This study developed a nomogram to predict postoperative recurrence of hepatoid adenocarcinoma of the stomach (HAS) and guide individualized surveillance strategies. The nomogram accurately stratified patients into low-, middle-, and high-risk groups of postoperative recurrence. Middle- and high-risk patients had higher rates of recurrence and metastasis, particularly multiple site metastasis, within 36 months after the operation.