Feasibility of machine learning-based modeling and prediction using multiple centers data to assess intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma outcomes

Background and aims Currently, there are still no definitive consensus in the treatment of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA). This study aimed to build a clinical decision support tool based on machine learning using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and the data from the Fifth Medical Center of the PLA General Hospital in China. Methods 4,398 eligible patients from the SEER database and 504 eligible patients from the hospital data, who presented with histologically proven iCCA, were enrolled for modeling by cross-validation based on machine learning. All the models were trained using the open-source Python library scikit-survival version 0.16.0. Shapley additive explanations method was used to help clinicians better understand the obtained results. Permutation importance was calculated using library ELI5. Results All involved treatment modalities could contribute to a better prognosis. Three models were derived and tested using different data sources, with concordance indices of 0.67, 0.69, and 0.73, respectively. The prediction results were consistent with those under actual situations involving randomly selected patients. Model 2, trained using the hospital data, was selected to develop an online tool, due to its advantage in predicting short-term prognosis. Conclusion The prediction model and tool established in this study can be applied to predict the prognosis of iCCA after treatment by inputting the patient's clinical parameters or TNM stages and treatment options, thus contributing to optimal clinical decisions. KEY MESSAGES A prognostic model related to disease staging and treatment mode was conducted using the method of machine learning, based on the big data of multi centers. The online calculator can predict the short-term survival prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, thus, help to make the best clinical decision. The online calculator built to calculate the mortality risk and overall survival can be easily obtained and applied.

Automated summary

This study developed a clinical decision support tool based on machine learning to predict the prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Three models were established using data from the SEER database and a hospital, with a concordance index ranging from 0.67 to 0.73. The models can help clinicians make optimal treatment decisions.