Simulation of Alcohol Control Policies for Health Equity (SIMAH) Project: Study Design and First Results

Since about 2010, life expectancy at birth in the United States has stagnated and begun to decline, with concurrent increases in the socioeconomic divide in life expectancy. The Simulation of Alcohol Control Policies for Health Equity (SIMAH) Project uses a novel microsimulation approach to investigate the extent to which alcohol use, socioeconomic status (SES), and race/ethnicity contribute to unequal developments in US life expectancy and how alcohol control interventions could reduce such inequalities. Representative, secondary data from several sources will be integrated into one coherent, dynamic microsimulation to model life-course changes in SES and alcohol use and cause-specific mortality attributable to alcohol use by SES, race/ethnicity, age, and sex. Markov models will be used to inform transition intensities between levels of SES and drinking patterns. The model will be used to compare a baseline scenario with multiple counterfactual intervention scenarios. The preliminary results indicate that the crucial microsimulation component provides a good fit to observed demographic changes in the population, providing a robust baseline model for further simulation work. By demonstrating the feasibility of this novel approach, the SIMAH Project promises to offer superior integration of relevant empirical evidence to inform public health policy for a more equitable future.

Automated summary

Since 2010, life expectancy in the US has been stagnant and even declining, accompanied by an increase in the socioeconomic gap in life expectancy. The SIMAH Project utilizes a unique microsimulation approach to analyze the impact of alcohol use, socioeconomic status, and race/ethnicity on unequal developments in life expectancy, and explores the potential of alcohol control interventions to reduce these inequalities. By integrating secondary data from various sources into a dynamic microsimulation model, this project aims to model changes in SES, alcohol use, and cause-specific mortality. The SIMAH Project demonstrates the feasibility of its approach and offers valuable evidence for informing public health policies towards a more equitable future.