Geopolitical risk and the systemic risk in the commodity markets under the war in Ukraine

We evaluate the transmission of returns and volatility in the universe of commodities around the war in Ukraine. The total volatility spillover increases from 35% to 85%, exceeding the level seen during the pandemic. The role of commodities changes in both return and volatility spillover systems. Crude oil becomes a net transmitter of return spillovers whereas wheat and soybeans become net receivers of return spillovers. Silver, gold, copper, platinum, aluminium, and sugar become net transmitters of volatility. Geopolitical risk Granger causes the spillover indices. High levels of return and volatility spillovers are associated with high levels of geopolitical risk.

Automated summary

This study evaluates the transmission of returns and volatility in the commodities market during the war in Ukraine. It finds that the overall volatility spillover increases significantly, with geopolitical risk being the main factor affecting the spillover indices.