Degradation of South American biomes: What to expect for the future?

South America, a complex geographical area formed by physical, biological, and climatic diversity and distributed over several biomes, is home to the greatest biodiversity on the planet. Climate change is a threat at the continental scale, putting future generations at risk. Studying the biomes of South America is a valid approach to reducing the economic, social and cultural impacts of each region. This study used 18 years of numerous meteorological, biophysical and fire variables, aiming to understand the vegetation dynamics of the World Wide Fund for Nature biomes in the past, present and future (2021-2040) as a potential tool for land and resource management natures of South America. Our results indicate an increase in air temperature mainly in tropical regions, which will accelerate the physical processes of evaporation and transpiration in vegetation, in addition to increasing the probability of mega-fires during the dry season in these regions. Among the ten biomes in South America, savannas, tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests showed the greatest decrease in vegetation, as simulated by future modeling. Our results simulated by ARIMA modeling and data simulated by the CanESM5 climate model warn of the loss of biodiversity in South America. If public policies are not implemented in the short term, the loss of vegetation and human lives will be inevitable in these regions.

Automated summary

South America, home to the world's greatest biodiversity, is facing the threat of climate change which can have severe economic, social and cultural impacts. This study examines the vegetation dynamics of various biomes and predicts a decrease in vegetation, particularly in tropical regions, due to increased evaporation and the risk of mega-fires. It warns of the loss of biodiversity in South America and emphasizes the need for immediate public policy actions to prevent irreversible damage to vegetation and human lives.