Proactive customer retention management in a non-contractual B2B setting based on churn prediction with random forests

Customer churn prediction enables companies to target customers at risk with proactive retention measures. We develop a churn prediction model for a non-contractual business-to-business (B2B) wholesale setting and apply it in a field study. Our experiment shows that compared to random targeting, contacting the customers with the highest predicted churn probabilities reduces churn in the population significantly. We demonstrate that this also entails a positive financial impact in terms of revenue development.In addition to validating B2B churn prediction and retention in the field, we contribute to the literature by identifying the most important features. On top of the common recency, frequency and monetary value features, we show that features specific to customer relationship management such as the recency of the last contact with a field representative are important. We provide a concept on how to integrate proactive churn management into operations by leveraging existing customer care processes.

Automated summary

Customer churn prediction is crucial for companies to retain at-risk customers through proactive measures. This study develops a churn prediction model for a non-contractual B2B wholesale setting and demonstrates that contacting customers with the highest predicted churn probabilities significantly reduces churn and has a positive financial impact on revenue development. The study also identifies important features, including recency of contact with a field representative, in addition to common features such as recency, frequency, and monetary value.