Predicting the Bioconcentration Factor in Fish from Molecular Structures

The bioconcentration factor (BCF) is one of the metrics used to evaluate the potential of a substance to bioaccumulate into aquatic organisms. In this work, linear and non-linear regression QSARs were developed for the prediction of log BCF using different computational approaches, and starting from a large and structurally heterogeneous dataset. The new MLR-OLS and ANN regression models have good fitting with R-2 values of 0.62 and 0.70, respectively, and comparable external predictivity with R-ext(2) 0.64 and 0.65 (RMSEext of 0.78 and 0.76), respectively. Furthermore, linear and non-linear classification models were developed using the regulatory threshold BCF >2000. A class balanced subset was used to develop classification models which were applied to chemicals not used to create the QSARs. These classification models are characterized by external and internal accuracy up to 84% and 90%, respectively, and sensitivity and specificity up to 90% and 80%, respectively. QSARs presented in this work are validated according to regulatory requirements and their quality is in line with other tools available for the same endpoint and dataset, with the advantage of low complexity and easy application through the software QSAR-ME Profiler. These QSARs can be used as alternatives for, or in combination with, existing models to support bioaccumulation assessment procedures.

Automated summary

This study developed linear and non-linear regression QSAR models to predict the bioaccumulation potential of substances in aquatic organisms, as well as linear and non-linear classification models to assess bioaccumulation capability. These models demonstrated good predictive accuracy and met regulatory requirements.