Role of Biodiversity in Ecological Calendars and Its Implications for Food Sovereignty: Empirical Assessment of the Resilience of Indicator Species to Anthropogenic Climate Change

Ecological calendars are knowledge systems based on close observation of one's habitat to measure and give meaning to time, thereby providing anticipatory capacity for livelihood activities and contributing to food sovereignty. They rely upon seasonal indicators that integrate biophysical and ecological phenomena (e.g., first snowfall, last frost, blossoming of a tree species; seasonal appearance of an animal or plant) with locally grounded cultural meaning and value systems. These context-specific relationships have enabled Indigenous and rural societies to anticipate weather and other seasonal processes in their environment. However, anthropogenic climate change could undermine ecological calendars due to adverse impacts on specific indicators species, but this issue remains unexplored. We address this knowledge gap by examining how anthropogenic climate change might affect selected species (birds, fish, and mammals) that are seasonal and key to Indigenous food systems in two Western Arctic communities. We leverage existing dietary animal datasets to which we apply a novel methodology for assessing organismal vulnerability to climate change. The methodology uses intrinsic species traits such as physiological tolerances, genetic variability, and life history traits to generate an empirical and integrative assessment of vulnerability for any given species. Subsequently, an aggregate view of vulnerability across calendar species is achieved through comparative statistical analysis across species both within and between communities. This exercise permits the first quantitative assessment of the continued relevance and effective use of an ecological calendar, thus demonstrating that food sovereignty and livelihood security is enhanced by biodiversity of indicator species. Plain Language Summary Ecological calendars are a way in which human societies have historically anticipated seasonal change. These calendars help Indigenous and rural societies make effective decisions about food production. Like our food system, these calendars depend fundamentally on species biodiversity to predict changing seasons. For example, the arrival of a migratory animal, the appearance of an insect, the song of a bird or the call of a frog, and the blossoming of a tree may indicate the arrival of spring. Ecological calendars can be powerful tools for anticipating anthropogenic climate change. However, in order to secure our food system and keep ecological calendars updated, we need to be able determine which species of bird, fish, and mammals will be resistant or resilient to climate change and which will be vulnerable. Here we present a methodological approach for such an assessment in order to safeguard our food sovereignty and achieve food security.

Automated summary

Ecological calendars are knowledge systems that help Indigenous and rural societies anticipate seasonal change and make effective decisions about food production. However, anthropogenic climate change poses a threat to ecological calendars by impacting specific indicator species. This study examines the vulnerability of selected species to climate change and highlights the importance of biodiversity in maintaining food sovereignty and livelihood security.