Predicting the potential for zoonotic transmission and host associations for novel viruses

Potential host range and spillover risk for novel viruses can be predicted using a network informed by known virus-host associations. Host-virus associations have co-evolved under ecological and evolutionary selection pressures that shape cross-species transmission and spillover to humans. Observed virus-host associations provide relevant context for newly discovered wildlife viruses to assess knowledge gaps in host-range and estimate pathways for potential human infection. Using models to predict virus-host networks, we predicted the likelihood of humans as hosts for 513 newly discovered viruses detected by large-scale wildlife surveillance at high-risk animal-human interfaces in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Predictions indicated that novel coronaviruses are likely to infect a greater number of host species than viruses from other families. Our models further characterize novel viruses through prioritization scores and directly inform surveillance targets to identify host ranges for newly discovered viruses.

Automated summary

A network based on known virus-host associations can be used to predict the potential host range and spillover risk of novel viruses, including their potential to infect humans. By studying known virus-host associations, we can identify knowledge gaps in host range and potential pathways for human infection of newly discovered wildlife viruses. Models can be used to predict virus-host networks and prioritize surveillance targets to identify host ranges for newly discovered viruses.