Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region

Climate models help assess the future availability of wind speeds to extract wind power; however, these climate models are mathematical models that include uncertainty in wind forecasts. Finding an appropriate climate model for analyzing future wind power generation is critical. Therefore, in the present work, six Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) climate models and their ensembles were statistically examined in the Indian offshore region using in-situ buoy readings and ERAS reanalysis data. Statistical parameters like correlation coefficient, bias, RMSD, and standard deviation are computed to examine the applicable model at buoy locations. With ERAS wind speeds, the overlapping percentage of climate models is later analyzed for the Indian offshore regions. The ensemble model statistically outperforms individual climate models at buoy sites, with 77% overlap with ERAS wind speeds in the offshore region. Further, the trends and cumulative variations in wind speeds are calculated for ensemble models under two emission scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In the future, the North-East (NE) zone will have the most advantageous change in wind speeds (0.21 to 8.68%), whereas the North-West (NW) area will have a negative cumulative change in wind speeds. (C) 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Automated summary

This study statistically examined the applicability of six CORDEX-SA climate models and their ensembles in the Indian offshore region, and found that the ensemble model outperforms individual models at buoy sites with a 77% overlap with ERAS wind speeds. It also discovered that the North-East region will experience the most advantageous change in wind speeds in the future, while the North-West region will have a negative cumulative change.