Life expectancy changes since COVID-19

In 2021, life expectancies returned to pre-pandemic levels in parts of western Europe but further worsened in eastern Europe, the United States and Chile. Life expectancy deficits were negatively correlated with vaccine uptake in later 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented rise in mortality that translated into life expectancy losses around the world, with only a few exceptions. We estimate life expectancy changes in 29 countries since 2020 (including most of Europe, the United States and Chile), attribute them to mortality changes by age group and compare them with historic life expectancy shocks. Our results show divergence in mortality impacts of the pandemic in 2021. While countries in western Europe experienced bounce backs from life expectancy losses of 2020, eastern Europe and the United States witnessed sustained and substantial life expectancy deficits. Life expectancy deficits during fall/winter 2021 among people ages 60+ and <60 were negatively correlated with measures of vaccination uptake across countries (r(60+) = -0.86; two-tailed P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval, -0.94 to -0.69; (P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval, -0.88 to -0.46). In contrast to 2020, the age profile of excess mortality in 2021 was younger, with those in under-80 age groups contributing more to life expectancy losses. However, even in 2021, registered COVID-19 deaths continued to account for most life expectancy losses.

Automated summary

In 2021, there were diverging impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancies in different regions, with vaccination rates negatively correlated with life expectancy deficits. Generally, countries in western Europe saw improvements in life expectancy, while those in eastern Europe and the United States experienced sustained deficits.