Considering humans as habitat reveals evidence of successional disease ecology among human pathogens

The realization that ecological principles play an important role in infectious disease dynamics has led to a renaissance in epidemiological theory. Ideas from ecological succession theory have begun to inform an understanding of the relationship between the individual microbiome and health but have not yet been applied to investigate broader, population-level epidemiological dynamics. We consider human hosts as habitat and apply ideas from succession to immune memory and multi-pathogen dynamics in populations. We demonstrate that ecologically meaningful life history characteristics of pathogens and parasites, rather than epidemiological features alone, are likely to play a meaningful role in determining the age at which people have the greatest probability of being infected. Our results indicate the potential importance of microbiome succession in determining disease incidence and highlight the need to explore how pathogen life history traits and host ecology influence successional dynamics. We conclude by exploring some of the implications that inclusion of successional theory might have for understanding the ecology of diseases and their hosts.

Automated summary

The recognition of the significance of ecological principles in infectious disease dynamics has sparked a revival in epidemiological theory. Ecological succession theory has started to influence our understanding of the relationship between the individual microbiome and health, but it has not yet been applied to investigate broader population-level epidemiological dynamics. This study demonstrates that ecological characteristics of pathogens and parasites, rather than solely epidemiological features, are likely to have a meaningful impact on the age at which individuals are most susceptible to infection.