Carbonation in Concrete Infrastructure in the Context of Global Climate Change: Model Refinement and Representative Concentration Pathway Scenario Evaluation

A number of recent studies have identified and begun to quantify increased susceptibility of the infrastructure to climate change-induced carbonation of reinforced concrete. In this paper, the results of a study are presented which uses an updated empirical model to predict the diffusion coefficient of carbon dioxide (CO2) in concrete and thereafter, predict carbonation depths for a number of urban environments in the United States. Data from newer climate forecasts from the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report are used to generate predictions for carbonation depths in four U.S. cities of varying geographic and climatic conditions (Los Angeles, Houston, Chicago, New York City). Results confirm that carbonation depths will increase in the future because of climate change. The magnitude of the increase is dependent on the climate-change scenario considered and the geographic location of the city. Whether or not the increases will require building code changes to increase concrete cover or improve concrete quality will be dependent on actual construction practices for the city in question.